There was a decent discussion on EN World over the past week about indie RPGs - and it seems anything outside of WOTC or Paizo qualifies as "indie" to some - and the conversation turned to numbers, as in "what are the biggest games out there?" This got some wheels turning and turned into this post.
First up I will say that if you're running a tabletop game with your friends none of this probably matters. If I am running say Mongoose Traveller or FFG Star Wars or 2d20 Star Trek then sales figures or popularity numbers of those games or any others really don't matter and they aren't going to affect what I do each week. People seem to be very interested in scoring or ranking these kinds of things but it really has very little impact on playing and running games*.
When people get to discussing this aspect of the hobby I think it is very important to distinguish two things:
- There is the biggest selling game at any given time.
- There is the most played game at any given time.
It is completely possible, and I would say likely, that there are two different answers to those. Well, aside from "D&D" which tends to dominate both regardless, followed by "Pathfinder". The other part of the question is "how do we measure either of those?" How do we come up with numbers on what people are playing and how do we truly know what's selling?
People in the business side of the hobby are probably more concerned with the sales question but the problem is that no one really knows. Individual game companies know what they are selling. Individual game stores know what is selling for them. Amazon knows what's selling. There is no industry-wide reporting with any real data.
I know about ICV2 and their quarterly reports. They've been around for decades and they've been cited as some kind of industry standard for a long time but their data is so flawed and incomplete that I feel it's incredibly misleading to draw major conclusions from it. The two biggest players in the RPG market are WOTC and Paizo and both of them have significant direct sales to consumers - heck Paizo built their core business model on it. None of that data is included in those reports. Amazon sales are not a part of those reports. I believe DTRPG is also not included in their data. Their miniature game reporting has a similar flaw in that Games Workshop does significant direct sales and maintains their own chain of retail stores around the world yet none of that data is included in ICV2 reporting. When a major chunk of sales for the biggest players in the industry are not covered that's a major flaw. That's just the start of my problems with that data and that reporting.
So we don't have a real big picture view of RPG industry sales. We have a lot of anecdotal stuff and we have companies mentioning that, as a fictional example, 2025 was the best year ever for Deadlands! Great! What does that mean? It tells us nothing in comparison to other games.
Then you get into the how we would differentiate the games even if we had more data. Do we track everything for Savage Worlds and rank that? Do we break it into the various game lines like Deadlands, Savage Pathfinder, Savage Rifts? What about 3rd party products - do they add on to the total for the whole game or do they count separately? Do all of the Free League's games count together? Are the Year Zero engine games grouped up separately from say Dragonbane? It's tricky. You might get a significant number of people playing Year Zero, or Savage Worlds, or 2d20 as systems but the individual games might be too small rank very high. There's a lot to consider, even if you had complete information, when it comes to "what is the number 3 best selling RPG right now?".
And again, how relevant or important this really is to anyone other than those trying to sell them is debatable.
Then we get to the question of what people are playing right now - which I think is regularly very different than what people are buying right now. A fair number of RPG players tend to be wrapped up in ongoing campaigns of varying lengths which means a book that you buy today may not hit the table for weeks or months or even years.
A personal example: I added the Tales of the Valiant Player's Guide 2 to my shelf recently. I ran Tales for a year and a half but it ended in November. I'm not sure when I will run it again. I'm happy about the purchase but I'm not playing that game right now. Conversely I am running Mutants and Masterminds right now and will be for at least a little while longer, maybe the rest of the year. I haven't bought a book for it in quite a while ... looks like since the Kickstarter for the Reprint Extravaganza which was summer 2023. Astonihsing Adventures Assembled was that same summer so either way that was my last pick-up. I did back the 4th Edition Kickstarter so maybe that should count - we're back to "how do we count these?" with various editions of a game now entering the mix.
This also touches on Kickstarters - there's a potential built-in delay there too as it often takes time for the rules to come out, even PDFs with some games. Even once it funds it might be weeks or months before anyone can even try to play it and not everyone will do that.
People do try to look at online play platforms to see what's popular but many of those cater to certain games more than others and there are still a whole lot of people who do not play online so at best you're getting another limited snapshot of what's being played.
I've seen others bring up convention numbers - what games are being offered? What games are filling up? It's another limited data point. For example if I went to a convention this weekend I suppose I might sign up for an M&M game, but if I signed up for 3 games over the course of a weekend I am 100% sure that the other two would be something else, and at least one might well be something new that I have not played before. Does a one-off count as "playing"? It should count for something as that means interest and engagement but it's not exactly the same as a game being used in a running campaign.
So I have far more questions than answers here and a lot more obstacles than solutions. For a relatively small industry it is very challenging to draw any useful conclusions from the available information.
*I do wonder if some of this is driven by people who don't have a current game but want to sound informed about the scene so they need to be able to say "Hey did you know XYZ is the 3rd biggest RPG right now"? Maybe it's something else but my preferred response there is "And ...? What do you play?".
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